Question

Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?

Resolved :No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction18%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 18%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

56.8

Community Peer Score

6.6

median 18.0%mean 21.6%

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Annual UFO report finds 21 cases of more than 700 received need more analysis

CBS•Nov 15, 2024

Pentagon says nearly two dozen UFO sightings can’t be explained: ‘True anomalies’

New York Post•Nov 15, 2024

Pentagon received hundreds of new UAP reports, but says no evidence of extraterrestrial activity

NBC•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

38%

By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?

The ʻOumuamua Paradox and the Nature of Interstellar Objects

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