Question

When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction2028-06-17 (2024-10-30 - 2033-11-15)

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CDF

weight:

	<2020-01-09	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2050-01-01
community	3.0%	Oct 2024	Jun 2028	Nov 2033	6.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<2020-01-09	3.0%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	Oct 2024	—
median	Jun 2028	—
upper 75%	Nov 2033	—
Upper bound
>2050-01-01	6.7%	—

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Jul 10, 2020

Closes:

Jun 2, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Whole genome sequencing

The colossal challenge of making a mammoth requires a lot of data centers

•Mar 5, 2025

China announces high-tech fund to grow AI, emerging industries

CNN•Mar 6, 2025

Alibaba’s New Model Adds Fuel to China’s AI Race

Time•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

73%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Jul 10, 2020

Closes:

Jun 2, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2049

Whole genome sequencing

The colossal challenge of making a mammoth requires a lot of data centers

•Mar 5, 2025

China announces high-tech fund to grow AI, emerging industries

CNN•Mar 6, 2025

Alibaba’s New Model Adds Fuel to China’s AI Race

Time•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

73%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

56.7%

MetaculusM

When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?

Make a Prediction

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

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