Question

When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction2028-06-17 (2024-10-30 - 2033-11-15)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

<2020-01-09

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2050-01-01

...

3.0%

2024-10-30 05:00

2028-06-17 16:19

2033-11-15 04:10

6.7%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

China Unveils $300M Neutrino Detector to Unlock Universe's Secrets

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Harvard and Google to release 1 million public-domain books as AI training dataset

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

73%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

China Unveils $300M Neutrino Detector to Unlock Universe's Secrets

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

5 Of The Most Important Medical Breakthroughs Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Harvard and Google to release 1 million public-domain books as AI training dataset

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

73%

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?

Make a Prediction

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Comments

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?