Question

Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters136

Community Prediction2%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

median 2.0%mean 6.3%

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Will at least one US state secede by 2070?

8.6%

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?

32.2%

Comments

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Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

How blue states could lose decisive number of electoral votes to red states in next Census

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Democrats are hoping blue states can hold the line in their battle against Trump's second-term agenda

Business Insider•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will at least one US state secede by 2070?

8.6%

If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?

Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?

32.2%