Question

Amplified forecasting: What will Buck's informed prediction of compute used in the largest ML training run before 2030 be?

Resolved :Ambiguous

24 comments24

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction12.3

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>30

...

9.045

12.3

16.41

6.2%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

PayPal

Kullback–Leibler divergence

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Statistics

Information theory

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

How large will the largest cluster used to train an AI model be, by the end of the following years?

106k

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.43M

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