Question

Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?

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Total Forecasters71

Community Prediction4% (1% - 5%)

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50%

community: 4%

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Authors:

Jgalt

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Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States

•Dec 19, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

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Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

58%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Comments

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

2016-2025 Leaderboard

World Health Organization

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States

•Dec 19, 2024

Is Bird Flu a Potential Pandemic? Dangers of the Outbreak Explained

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

America’s Bird-Flu Luck Has Officially Run Out

Atlantic•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

58%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Comments

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?