Question

Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?

Resolved :Yes99%

16 comments16

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction99% (95% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-18.7

Community Peer Score

6.3

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Authors:

daavwangg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

New York (state)

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Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

48%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

daavwangg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

2020 Leaderboard

New York (state)

COVID-19 Rates Are Strangely Low This Holiday Season

Time•Dec 19, 2024

COVID Update: Map Reveals States at Greatest Risk As Christmas Nears

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Multiple states bring back face mask rules as doctors warn of 'quad-demic' of viruses this winter

Daily Mail•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

48%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?

Make a Prediction

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Comments

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?