MetaculusM

Question

If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?

Resolved :Yes85%

19

Total Forecasters141

Community Prediction85% (80% - 92%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 85%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-2.7

Community Peer Score

29.5

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2020-2021 Leaderboard

The New York Times

Scott Alexander

Lying NYT Falsely Claims Team Trump Suing Media over ‘Critical Coverage'

Breitbart•Dec 18, 2024

ChatGPT Won’t Say His Name

Atlantic•Dec 21, 2024

Progressive Journalist Faces Flurry of Death Threats on Leftist Echo Chamber Bluesky over Trans Skepticism

Breitbart•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2020-2021 Leaderboard

The New York Times

Scott Alexander

Lying NYT Falsely Claims Team Trump Suing Media over ‘Critical Coverage'

Breitbart•Dec 18, 2024

ChatGPT Won’t Say His Name

Atlantic•Dec 21, 2024

Progressive Journalist Faces Flurry of Death Threats on Leftist Echo Chamber Bluesky over Trans Skepticism

Breitbart•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch