Question

Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?

Resolved :No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters58

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

median 10.0%mean 11.1%

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Michael J. Ryan (doctor)

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Michael J. Ryan (doctor)

World Health Organization

Epidemiology

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Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Comments

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?