Question

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction69.7k (43.4k - 127k)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

43.44k

69.71k

127k

0.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 16, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

China is hit by powerful 5.5-magnitude earthquake a day after devastating tremors left 126 dead in Tibet

Daily Mail•Jan 23, 2025

Tibet Earthquake Kills 95 with Tremors Rocking Mt. Everest, Nepal, India

Breitbart•Jan 24, 2025

Earthquake 50 miles from Mount Everest leaves at least 126 dead in Tibet

FOX News•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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