Question

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction74.3k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

45.4k

74.3k

135k

0.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

Hurricane Helene 2nd deadliest storm in the past 20 years with 159 killed

New York Post•Oct 2, 2024

US Hurricanes Cause Thousands of Deaths for Years After Storms Hit

Newsweek•Oct 2, 2024

Hurricanes indirectly cause thousands of deaths for nearly 15 years after a storm, study finds

CBS•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Comments

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?