Question

How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters51

Community Prediction71.9k (45k - 133k)

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upper 75%

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45.01k

71.86k

132.9k

0.3%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

Vanuatu earthquake leaves 14 dead as prime minister declares state of emergency

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

20 years on: Remembering the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that claimed over 220,000 lives

•Dec 21, 2024

2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: What to know 20 years on

•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.81k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Natural Sciences

2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami

Haiti

US Geological Survey

Vanuatu earthquake leaves 14 dead as prime minister declares state of emergency

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

20 years on: Remembering the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami that claimed over 220,000 lives

•Dec 21, 2024

2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: What to know 20 years on

•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

14%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

2.81k

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How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 - 2029?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Comments

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?

Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?