Question

Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?

Resolved :No3%

22 comments22

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction3% (1% - 8%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

89.1

Community Peer Score

10.0

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sino-Indian border dispute

United States

US Navy Eyes More Lethal Firepower in South China Sea

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Satellite Photos Show China's Warships in Naval Standoff

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PeterWildeford

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sino-Indian border dispute

United States

US Navy Eyes More Lethal Firepower in South China Sea

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Satellite Photos Show China's Warships in Naval Standoff

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

China's Intensified Military Manoeuvres Spark International Concerns

•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Comments

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?