Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?

Resolved :4949.6
8
27
Total Forecasters59
Community Prediction49.6 (48.5 - 50.3)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
48.54
49.58
50.34

What was the final result?49

Community Baseline Score
119.6
Community Peer Score
11.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
alexrjl
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Instant-runoff voting
Maine
Nebraska
US Electoral College
First-past-the-post voting
2024 Elections (US)
Plurality voting
Washington, D.C.

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