Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?

Resolved :Ambiguous3.6k
43
50
Total Forecasters110
Community Prediction3.6k (1.44k - 8.91k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<175
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
2.3%
1.445k
3.596k
8.909k
2.4%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Artificial Intelligence
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Machine learning
Linguistics
OpenAI
GPT2

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