Question

Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?

Resolved :Yes60%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction60% (54% - 62%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-2.8

Community Peer Score

2.6

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Authors:

isinlor

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Closes:

Resolves:

AI Training and Compute

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Artificial Intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

2.08M

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

28%

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