Question

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction87% (80% - 93.2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 87%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 27, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 1, 2025

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Neuroscience

Rnn (software)

Long short-term memory

Software engineering

Google Scholar

Forget DeepSeek. Large language models are getting cheaper still

Economist•Feb 12, 2025

Cartesia claims its AI is efficient enough to run pretty much anywhere

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

AI Will Evolve Into an Organizational Strategy for All

Wired•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

90%

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jul 27, 2020

Closes:

Dec 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 1, 2025

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Neuroscience

Rnn (software)

Long short-term memory

Software engineering

Google Scholar

Forget DeepSeek. Large language models are getting cheaper still

Economist•Feb 12, 2025

Cartesia claims its AI is efficient enough to run pretty much anywhere

TechCrunch•Feb 16, 2025

AI Will Evolve Into an Organizational Strategy for All

Wired•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

90%

Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?

65%