Question

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

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Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction85% (80% - 90%)

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community: 85%

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Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

95%

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

24%

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Neuroscience

Rnn (software)

Long short-term memory

Software engineering

Google Scholar

Will 2025 Be a "Technology Wake-Up Call" for Clinicians?

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

OpenAI announces new o3 models

TechCrunch•Dec 21, 2024

Generative AI Still Needs to Prove Its Usefulness

Wired•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

95%

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

24%

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Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

Comments

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?