Question

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters268

Community Prediction1.5% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Jul 19, 2017

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

International Atomic Energy Agency

Pakistan

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

France

Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

United States

China Hosts Nuclear Weapons Talks Amid Saber-Rattling in Europe

Newsweek•Feb 19, 2025

Japanese atomic bomb survivor warns nuclear taboo is at risk in Nobel Peace Prize speech

NBC•Feb 19, 2025

Atomic Bombing Survivors Accept Nobel Peace Prize, Call for a World Free of Nuclear Weapons

Democracy Now•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

75%

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

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