Question

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?

Resolved :Yes

20 comments20

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction70%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

51.6

Community Peer Score

24.6

median 70.0%mean 69.3%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Putin fine-tunes Russia’s nuclear doctrine after Biden’s arms decision on Ukraine, in clear signal to West

CNN•Nov 19, 2024

Biden’s major missile reversal complicates potential western diplomatic thaw with Moscow

CNN•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%