Question

Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?

Resolved :No

14 comments14

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction55%

Make a Prediction

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-17.5

Community Peer Score

21.9

median 55.0%mean 50.5%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Newsweek•Oct 14, 2024

What Are The Odds The Bull Market Will Keep Going? Pretty Good

Forbes•Oct 15, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

95%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

80%