Question

Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?

Resolved :No50%

20 comments20

Total Forecasters83

Community Prediction50% (39% - 56%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-55.3

Community Peer Score

4.0

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Jul 22, 2017

Closes:

Oct 20, 2017

Resolves:

Jan 12, 2018

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Metaculus meta questions

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