Question

If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction80% (68% - 86%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

mdickens

Opened:

Jan 18, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Economy & Business

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

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What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.96

Comments

? comments

Authors:

mdickens

Opened:

Jan 18, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Economy & Business

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

How DeepSeek’s AI Model Impacts AVGO Stock?

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

DeepSeek Represents A Paradigm Shift For Tech Giants And Market Indices

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Here’s How Much AI Firm DeepSeek And Its Founder Are Worth

Forbes•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

1.69k

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

90%

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.96