Question

What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?

Resolved :0.82.09

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction2.09 (1.48 - 3.19)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	<0.5	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>20
community	2.2%	1.481	2.088	3.186	0.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.5	2.2%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.481	—
median	2.088	—
upper 75%	3.186	—
Upper bound
>20	0.8%	—

What was the final result?0.8

Community Baseline Score

-34.7

Community Peer Score

19.4

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Aug 21, 2020

Closes:

Nov 3, 2020

Resolves:

Aug 20, 2021

Politics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

2020 US presidential election

Indictment Of PA Dems Shows How Mail Ballot Fraud Happens

Federalist•Mar 3, 2025

Wisconsin audit of Trump win finds not a single voting machine error

Associated Press•Mar 3, 2025

Wisconsin voters whose ballots were not counted in November election seek damages

Associated Press•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?

80%

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?

60%

Comments

? comments