Question

How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?

Resolved :235

25 comments25

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction237

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

229.7

236.9

244.1

0.1%

What was the final result?235

Community Baseline Score

103.2

Community Peer Score

22.0

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

Amazon (company)

Toby Ord

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

75%

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.51

How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?

21.5k

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Sylvain

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

Amazon (company)

Toby Ord

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

75%

Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?

5.51

How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?

21.5k