622 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Aug 2033
Key Factors
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 23, 2020
Closes:Dec 24, 2199
Scheduled resolution:Dec 24, 2199
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 25, 2020
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
12 Jul 2027
(15 Feb 2026 - Mar 2031)
12 Jul 2027
(15 Feb 2026 - Mar 2031)
1.7k forecasters
When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
Nov 2030
(27 Jul 2026 - Mar 2040)
181 forecasters
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
1% chance
405