Question
If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?
Resolved :3.76k3.33kTotal Forecasters33
Community Prediction3.33k (3.06k - 3.61k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1.5k | 0.7% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 3.063k | — |
| median | 3.333k | — |
| upper 75% | 3.61k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >6k | 0.3% | — |
What was the final result?3.76k
Community Baseline Score
54.4
Community Peer Score
13.2
Authors:
Opened:Aug 29, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolves:Jan 2, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 29, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolves:Jan 2, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch