Question
If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?
Resolved :12.9M14.1MTotal Forecasters25
Community Prediction14.1M (13.9M - 14.3M)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <11M | 0.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 13.94M | — |
| median | 14.11M | — |
| upper 75% | 14.28M | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15M | 1.6% | — |
What was the final result?12.9M
Community Baseline Score
-114.7
Community Peer Score
35.3
Authors:
Opened:Aug 29, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 29, 2020
Closes:Nov 2, 2020
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch