Question

If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved :Ambiguous

25 comments25

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction411k

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My Prediction

community

<10k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

0.4%

300.1k

410.7k

529k

0.3%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

amanda@ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

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