Question
If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?
Resolved :Ambiguous411kTotal Forecasters49
Community Prediction411k (300k - 529k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <10k | 0.4% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 300.1k | — |
| median | 410.7k | — |
| upper 75% | 529k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >10M | 0.3% | — |
What was the final result?Ambiguous
Authors:
Opened:Sep 1, 2020
Closes:Feb 4, 2021
Resolves:Feb 21, 2021
Comments
? comments
Authors:
Opened:Sep 1, 2020
Closes:Feb 4, 2021
Resolves:Feb 21, 2021
