Question

If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved :Ambiguous411k

25 comments25

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction411k (300k - 529k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<10k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

0.4%

300.1k

410.7k

529k

0.3%

What was the final result?Ambiguous

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Authors:

amanda@ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

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Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

118k

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

121k

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

amanda@ought

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

Americans are living longer, thanks to pandemic's end, fewer opioid deaths

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

The enormous number of Canadians who died by assisted suicide in 2023

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Biden gives Pfizer and Moderna shield from being sued for Covid vaccine injuries and deaths until 2029

Daily Mail•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

118k

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

121k

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If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Make a Prediction

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Comments

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Depending on a CDC authorization of a pan-betacoronavirus vaccine, how many US deaths will be attributed to betacoronaviruses between 2028 and 2030 (inclusive)?

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?