🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?

Resolved :460k460k
6
25
Total Forecasters50
Community Prediction460k (352k - 574k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<10k
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>10M
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
352.5k
459.7k
574k
0.3%

What was the final result?460k

Community Baseline Score
15.8
Community Peer Score
27.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
amanda@ought
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Possible Worlds Series (with Ought)
Health & Pandemics
2020-2021 Leaderboard
United States
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology

Comments

? comments