Question

What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?

Resolved :9

16 comments16

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction9.76

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

8.394

9.756

10.09

What was the final result?9

Community Baseline Score

94.1

Community Peer Score

40.6

Authors:

CrackpotRung

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

California

Thomas Fire

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

50%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

CrackpotRung

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

California

Thomas Fire

Firefighters battle 'diablo wind' to extinguish Oakland fire that burned 2 homes

Independent•Oct 20, 2024

Firefighters battle ‘diablo wind’ to extinguish Oakland fire that burned 2 homes

Associated Press•Oct 20, 2024

Calmer weather helps contain Oakland, California, fire that forced evacuations

Associated Press•Oct 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

50%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%