Question

What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?

Resolved :99.76

16 comments16

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction9.76 (8.39 - 10.1)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

8.394

9.756

10.09

What was the final result?9

Community Baseline Score

94.1

Community Peer Score

40.6

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

CrackpotRung

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2020 Leaderboard

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

California

Thomas Fire

'Steady progress': Crews aided by rain, cooler temps in containing Malibu's Franklin Fire

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

NASA Images Reveal Most Dangerous Fires Share Overlooked Trait

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Crews enter 5th day battling Franklin Fire in Malibu: See map of damage, destruction

USA Today•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

50%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

CrackpotRung

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

2020 Leaderboard

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection

California

Thomas Fire

'Steady progress': Crews aided by rain, cooler temps in containing Malibu's Franklin Fire

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

NASA Images Reveal Most Dangerous Fires Share Overlooked Trait

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Crews enter 5th day battling Franklin Fire in Malibu: See map of damage, destruction

USA Today•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

50%

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

587

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

20%

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What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?

Make a Prediction

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Comments

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, before 2031?

If the SF Bay Area is struck with magnitude 7.8 or higher earthquake by 2052, how many people will die?

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?