Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
Resolved:NoMake a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
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Comments
@SimonM It's a shame Metaculus wasn't around for the OJ trial. When the verdict came in, we could've said "Source: stick your head out the window and someone will tell you; no need to ask."
@Jgalt Getting very extreme! My initial % was 12 when MC was at 70%! So we will see who was the wisest (prior: MC).
Ok, now I'd drop to 6%.
AP: Rittenhouse murder case thrown into jeopardy by mistrial bid
The murder case against Kyle Rittenhouse was thrown into jeopardy Wednesday when his lawyers asked for a mistrial over what appeared to be out-of-bounds questions asked of Rittenhouse by the chief prosecutor.
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During cross-examination, Binger asked Rittenhouse about whether it was appropriate to use deadly force to protect property. The prosecutor also posed questions about Rittenhouse’s silence after his arrest.
The jury was ushered out of the room, and the judge loudly and angrily accused Binger of pursuing an improper line of questioning and trying to introduce testimony that Schroeder earlier said he was inclined to prohibit.
...
Rittenhouse attorney Mark Richards suggested Binger might be attempting to provoke a mistrial. The defense asked for a mistrial with prejudice, meaning that if it is granted, Rittenhouse cannot be retried in the shootings.
— edited by Jgalt
I think I'd drop to 12% now.
— edited by Jgalt
Reuters: Man killed by Rittenhouse challenged group to shoot him, had bipolar disorder - testimony
A witness in the trial of U.S. teenager Kyle Rittenhouse said on Friday that one of the two protesters killed that night was acting aggressively and repeatedly challenged a group of armed men to shoot him, but that he did not consider the man a threat.
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Lackowski also said Rosenbaum was using "the N-word" while asking people to shoot him, utterances that prompted other protesters to react negatively toward him. The protests had been sparked by the police shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man, on Aug. 23, 2020. Blake was left paralyzed from the waist down.
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In a possible misstep by Kenosha County Assistant District Attorney James Kraus, he asked Swart about her medications, a line of questioning the judge ruled allowed Rittenhouse's lawyers to ask about what he was being treated for.
Swart, who had been with Rosenbaum for about one year prior to his death, said he was taking medication for bipolar disorder and an antidepressant.
The prosecution really seems to be fumbling this.
— edited by Jgalt
@Jgalt I am not following the logic of that article:
Rosenbaum's fiancee testified that he had been diagnosed with bipolar disorder, which prosecutors could use to argue that he was the aggressor in the encounter and to question his mental stability.
That sounds like something the defense would want to argue, no?
I ended up at 40% here, which now looks much too conservative to me. I think I'd drop to 20% if this were still open.
WSJ also reporting on the difficulty facing the prosecution in this case: Getting a conviction against Kyle Rittenhouse, the teen who killed two people and injured a third during the unrest in Kenosha, might be harder than it seems. A Wisconsin law makes it difficult to convict someone who claims self-defense.
Yeah I thought he was crazy or an irresponsible moron like everyone else but after learning more about the case it looks like self-defense. He could have done more to avoid trouble though. Anyway he will get acquitted. He deserves to get acquitted. I’m scared there will be riots after his acquittal. On the other hand he shot white antifa and not black people so maybe it won’t be so bad.
@(alwaysrinse)
I’m scared there will be riots after his acquittal.
Worth a contingent question on this? We could ask whether there will be some number of arrests in the context of rioting within a month of the disposition of the case
@Jgalt Definitely worth it. The main cause for optimism is that the dead people here are white antifa. If we had dead black people and there was an acquittal, you'd have big riots. I don't know how much more of this American democracy can survive. People shouldn't riot over acquittals for justified shootings in a sane society, and even for unjustified ones; people should trust the legal system.
qwertie256
·This is confusing. The question says "He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide", but it is reported that he was charged with reckless homocide:
casens
·@qwertie256 he was charged with intentional homicide and reckless homicide, but in any case he was acquitted on all charges.