Question

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

39 comments39

Total Forecasters110

Community Prediction2048-11-25 (2033-08-04 - 2085-01-19)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2199-12-24

...

2033-08-04 00:10

2048-11-25 19:51

2085-01-19 13:22

14.2%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Real gross domestic product

A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Looking Back At A Year Of Resilience And What To Expect In 2025

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

2041-05-20

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

2082-08-16

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Industrial Revolution

World Bank

Agricultural revolution

Real gross domestic product

A top Chinese economist just said what many people suspected: China's official GDP numbers may not be accurate

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Looking Back At A Year Of Resilience And What To Expect In 2025

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will we have transformative AI?

2041-05-20

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

2082-08-16

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.45

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MetaculusM

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Make a Prediction

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Comments

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

When will we have transformative AI?

In what year will world energy consumption first exceed 130% of every prior year?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?