Question

In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction2050-09-14 (2034-09-12 - 2090-06-10)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2199-12-24
community	2034	2050	2090	15.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2034	—
median	2050	—
upper 75%	2090	—
Upper bound
>2199-12-24	15.1%	—

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Aug 30, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2201

AI Progress Essay Contest

AGI Outcomes

Economy & Business

Agricultural revolution

World Bank

Real gross domestic product

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2040-03-09

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2081-08-21

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3.96

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