Question

Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?

Resolved :No33%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters261

Community Prediction33% (20% - 54%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-10.4

Community Peer Score

29.8

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Chemistry

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Atmospheric science

Environmental science

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Greg

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Chemistry

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Atmospheric science

Environmental science

Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Coal use hitting all-time high in 2024, which is on track to be hottest year ever, report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

Wild temperature swings are coming the rest of the year. Here’s what to expect

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

20%

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

2029-08-16

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?

Make a Prediction

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Comments

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

Before 2100, will there be a 5-year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1861-1880 baseline?

When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?