Question

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction7.4e-1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<3e-2

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>33

...

19.3%

1.298e-1

7.401e-1

1.386

7.8%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Technology

Cryonics Institute

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

23rd century

Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

83%

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

62%

What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

2.15

Comments

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Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Technology

Cryonics Institute

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

23rd century

People are withdrawing from organ donation after reports of a man mistakenly declared dead

Independent•Oct 29, 2024

A Family Reckons with a Father’s Wish to Be Preserved Using Cryonics in “Eternal Father”

New Yorker•Oct 29, 2024

After reports that organs were nearly removed from man mistakenly declared dead, organ donation programs impacted

CBS•Oct 29, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

83%

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

62%

What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

2.15