Question

What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction0.74

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<0.03

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>33

...

19.3%

0.1298

0.7401

1.386

7.8%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Technology

Cryonics Institute

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

23rd century

Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

83%

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

66%

What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

2.15

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Social Sciences

Technology

Cryonics Institute

Alcor Life Extension Foundation

23rd century

Bone Marrow Donors Can Be Hard to Find. One Company Is Turning to Cadavers

Wired•Nov 13, 2024

The Quest for Immortality: What Do Scientists Say?

Psychology Today•Nov 16, 2024

Are cancer survivors less likely to develop Alzheimer’s?

Guardian•Nov 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

83%

Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?

66%

What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?

2.15