Question

If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?

Resolved :No

27 comments27

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction47%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 47%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-5.5

Community Peer Score

17.3

median 47.0%mean 44.5%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Could Biden's Ukraine Missile Move Trigger World War III? Experts' Verdicts

Newsweek•Nov 19, 2024

BOOM: Russia Updates Its Nuclear Doctrine, Pushing the World Closer to Armageddon

PJ Media•Nov 19, 2024

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