Question

If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?

Resolved :No

27 comments27

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction47%

Make a Prediction

community: 47%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-5.5

Community Peer Score

17.3

median 47.0%mean 44.5%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

NATO will start an annual nuclear exercise as Russia threatens Ukraine’s Western backers

Associated Press•Oct 10, 2024

Steadfast Noon: Annual NATO Nuclear Exercise to Start Next Week

Breitbart•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%