Question

If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?

Resolved :No

27 comments27

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction47%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 47%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-5.5

Community Peer Score

17.3

median 47.0%mean 44.5%

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Comments

? comments

Authors:

tetraspace

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

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PJ Media•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%