Question

How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?

Resolved :54.01

19 comments19

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction4.01 (3.02 - 4.95)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

3.021

4.008

4.95

What was the final result?5

Community Baseline Score

97.2

Community Peer Score

62.8

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

deKlik

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

In 2025 Gen AI Will Slow (Sundar Pichai) Or Sprint (Sam Altman)

Forbes•Dec 16, 2024

OpenAI Under Fire: Leadership Shake-ups and Rising Competition

•Dec 17, 2024

Language AIs in 2024: Size, guardrails and steps toward AI agents

The Conversation•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Foresight 2020

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

96%

Comments

? comments