🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?

Resolved :Yes27%
16
77
Total Forecasters136
Community Prediction27% (10% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 27%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
-56.0
Community Peer Score
22.8
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
yshemesh
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest
Health & Pandemics
2020 Leaderboard
China
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
World Health Organization
Epidemiology

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