Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion (2020 USD) before 2027?
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CNBC: Stripe tells employees it will decide on an IPO within the next year
Stripe, the fintech company once valued at $95 billion by private market investors, will make a decision on its plans to go public within the next year, CNBC has confirmed.
Co-founders and brothers John and Patrick Collison told employees on Thursday that they will set a goal of taking the company public or letting staffers sell shares through a secondary offering, The Information first reported.
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Stripe is considering a direct listing or private market transaction and has hired Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to advise on the deal, CNBC has learned.
Bloomberg: Stripe has reduced its internal valuation by about 11% to $63 billion, The Information reported
It was valued at $95 billion in 2021.
— edited by Jgalt
CNBC: Major investors reportedly up stakes in Stripe ahead of public listing
Major investment firms are upping their stakes in digital payments firm Stripe ahead of an eventual public listing, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
Capital Group, Sequoia Capital, Shopify and Silver Lake all bought shares from existing stakeholders, including current and former Stripe employees, the Journal reported, citing unnamed sources. The sales totaled about $1 billion, of a total $4 billion that was bid.
Representatives for Stripe and for the investment firms did not immediately respond to request for comment.
@sbares Hmm. I had in mind the following:
- If it's private and there's no indication of a $1tr market cap -> negative
- If it's private and there is an indication of a $1tr market cap -> positive
- If it's private and there are ambiguous indications of a $1tr market cap -> ambiguous
If it's private and there is an indication of a $1tr market cap -> positive
What would the "market cap" of a private company even mean, though?
— edited by sbares
Stripe had 36 billion valuation in April. Let's assume it's 50 billion now. There are 6 years and slightly more than 2.5 months before the end date. It is 6.21 years.
To reach 1 trillion the company has to demonstrate 20x growth. Solving a simple equation gives 62% growth per year which is the same as 4.1% growth per months.
Keep in mind that this is not average growth in general, this is the best case of 62% average growth, the case with zero standard deviation. I am not going to estimate expected standard deviation and do the math, but intuitively it feels like the average yearly growth should be around 80%.
One may come up with the following [extremely simplified] model: There is X probability that Stripe will give 80% yearly growth and 1-X probability of giving 0% growth (which is super conservative, even with zero risk).
For comparison, Chinese government bonds give 2.6% return.
X*1.8=1.026 gives 3% probability (we could use US bonds and get <1% probability, but it feels unreasonable for me).
I know that this is oversimplified, ignores a lot of important factors (e.g. Covid-19), and makes some dubious assumptions. However, I think that it has no horrible mistakes, providing a good point of reference for future analysis.
If we adjust by comapny age, Stripe was starte in 2010 and Google in 1998, so 12 rather than 7 years would seem a more appropriate time frame for first reaching 1T. Alternatively if using 7 years then ~500B would seem like a better target valuation.
Jgalt
·CNBC: Stripe slashes valuation to $50 billion in new $6.5 billion funding round