Question

Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?

Resolved :Yes

35 comments35

Total Forecasters134

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

community: 80%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

40.7

Community Peer Score

27.2

median 80.0%mean 77.9%

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

10%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

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Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

10%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

50%