Question

Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?

Resolved :No

93 comments93

Total Forecasters142

Community Prediction62%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-38.0

Community Peer Score

11.9

median 62.0%mean 60.9%

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Israel warns fans about attending events after Amsterdam attacks; soccer match vs France set for Thursday

FOX News•Nov 11, 2024

Thousands of police officers but few visiting fans for France-Israel soccer match after attacks

Independent•Nov 14, 2024

Thousands of police officers but few visiting fans for France-Israel soccer match after attacks

Associated Press•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

92%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

yshemesh

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest

Israel warns fans about attending events after Amsterdam attacks; soccer match vs France set for Thursday

FOX News•Nov 11, 2024

Thousands of police officers but few visiting fans for France-Israel soccer match after attacks

Independent•Nov 14, 2024

Thousands of police officers but few visiting fans for France-Israel soccer match after attacks

Associated Press•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?

Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?

92%