🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?

Resolved :No40%
17
52
Total Forecasters119
Community Prediction40% (25% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
27.0
Community Peer Score
33.3
Authors:
yshemesh
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
20/20 Insight Forecasting Contest
Politics
2020 Leaderboard
2016 US presidential election
Democratic Party (US)
Hillary Clinton
Republican Party (US)
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
RealClearPolitics

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