Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?

Resolved :No38%
8
32
Total Forecasters75
Community Prediction38% (27% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 38%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
51.6
Community Peer Score
11.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Elections
Politics
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Erin O'Toole
House of Commons of the UK
Prime Minister of Canada
Parliament of Canada
Conservative Party of Canada
Canada Elections Act
44th Canadian federal election
Stephen Harper
Durham, Ontario

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