Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?

Resolved :No15%
11
9
Total Forecasters74
Community Prediction15% (10% - 20%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
77.7
Community Peer Score
4.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
isinlor
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Natural Sciences
2016-2025 Leaderboard
Astronomy
Venus
Physics
Materials science
Phosphine
Chemistry
Atmospheric science
Astrophysics
Atmosphere of Venus

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