🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

33
38
Total Forecasters117
Community Prediction2029-05-30 (2025-07-07 - 2036-12-15)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<2020-10-29
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2090-10-24
...
...
...
...
...
4.5%
2025-07-07 19:41
2029-05-30 17:12
2036-12-15 22:59
1.6%
Authors:
Tamay
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Natural Sciences
Neuroscience
Bioinformatics
Ethics
Biotechnology
Intelligence quotient
In vitro fertilisation
Polygenic score
Education
Neuroenhancement
Reproductive medicine

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