Question

Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?

Resolved :No40%

39 comments39

Total Forecasters150

Community Prediction40% (23% - 55%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-24.8

Community Beer Score

34.6

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Jose (2017)

Hurricane Maria

Atlantic hurricane season

List of Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes

List of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes

Puerto Rico

Florida Keys

24 disasters, $24 billion in damage: Assessing 2024's climate catastrophes

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

Back-to-Back Bomb Cyclones Could Hit US

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Hundreds Feared Dead After Cyclone Chido Hits French Territory Mayotte

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

11.4

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

61.8%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

paulgabrielsen

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Environment & Climate

Natural Sciences

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Jose (2017)

Hurricane Maria

Atlantic hurricane season

List of Category 4 Atlantic hurricanes

List of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes

Puerto Rico

Florida Keys

24 disasters, $24 billion in damage: Assessing 2024's climate catastrophes

USA Today•Dec 13, 2024

Back-to-Back Bomb Cyclones Could Hit US

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Hundreds Feared Dead After Cyclone Chido Hits French Territory Mayotte

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

11.4

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

61.8%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

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MetaculusM

Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?

Make a Prediction

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Comments

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?