Question

Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?

Resolved :Yes

4 comments4

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

16.5

Community Peer Score

12.5

median 60.0%mean 69.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

25%

When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

2025-12-23

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?

9.7

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

[KH Explains] For Korean automakers, Chinese EVs may loom larger than Trump’s tariffs

Korea Herald•Nov 14, 2024

Germany’s car industry is losing its famous Vorsprung – and it can’t all be blamed on Trump and tariffs | Konstantin Richter

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Is the $7500 Federal EV Tax Credit Going Away Under Trump?

Newsweek•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?

25%

When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?

2025-12-23

What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?

9.7