Question

Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?

53 comments53

Total Forecasters267

Community Prediction60% (41% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Nov 5, 2020

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

AI Demonstrations

Artificial Intelligence

The New York Times Best Seller list

Linguistics

Language model

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When will the first AI-generated book be on the New York Times Best Seller list?

2029-10-14

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40%

When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?

2024-06-05

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