Question

Will Trump freely leave the White House?

Resolved :Yes

29 comments29

Total Forecasters222

Community Prediction96%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 96%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

87.0

Community Peer Score

9.1

median 96.0%mean 92.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

United States Secret Service

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

1.7%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

United States Secret Service

How All Of Trump’s Criminal Cases Fell Apart, Explained

Forbes•Nov 12, 2024

Why Trump Will Never Face Trial for Election Fraud

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

How All Of Trump’s Criminal Cases Fell Apart—As Hush Money Case Now Delayed

Forbes•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

1.7%