Question

When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction2045-08

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2080-11

...

2033-02

2045-08

2063-01

12.6%

Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm

Diffie–Hellman key exchange

Cryptography

Physics

Quantum mechanics

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2040-11

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

2045-04

Comments

? comments

Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm

Diffie–Hellman key exchange

Cryptography

Physics

Quantum mechanics

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When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

2040-11

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

2045-04

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When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?

Make a Prediction

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

Comments

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?

When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?

Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?

When will 256 bit ECC become insecure?